Where There's a Will . . . No Way

Update (Feb. 19-20): More analysis of Will-full serial lying is here:

University of Illinois' Arctic Climate Research Center:

In an opinion piece by George Will published on February 15, 2009 in the Washington Post, George Will states "According to the University of Illinois' Arctic Climate Research Center, global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979."

We do not know where George Will is getting his information, but our data shows that on February 15, 1979, global sea ice area was 16.79 million sq. km and on February 15, 2009, global sea ice area was 15.45 million sq. km. Therefore, global sea ice levels are 1.34 million sq. km less in February 2009 than in February 1979. This decrease in sea ice area is roughly equal to the area of Texas, California, and Oklahoma combined.

It is disturbing that the Washington Post would publish such information without first checking the facts.

More Grumbine Science: Neither politicians nor political commentators

ClimateScienceWatch: George Will recycles global warming disinformation talking points

Climate Progress: The day DC journalism died: Washington Post is staffed with people who found ZERO mistakes in George Will’s error-filled denial column

Deltoid: Washington Post rejects the concept of objective facts

Discover:

• George Will: Liberated From the Burden of Fact-Checking
• The Sea Ice Affair, Continued

FiveThirtyEight: George F. Will Takes on Science, Loses Credibility

Island of Doubt:

• The importance of actually reading what you cite
• Fact-checking? We don't need no stinkin' fact-checking!

The Intersection: George Will is Not Entitled to His Own Facts

Denialism:

• The Global Warming Cranks - George Will officially in their ranks
• George Will - We must not allow his dishonesty to be ignored
  

More links are at The Way Things Break: Waiting for WaPo

Original post:
A letter to the editor in today's WaPo skillfully skewers climate expert and general know-it-all George Will's latest work of fiction:

I thank The Post for George F. Will's Feb. 15 op-ed column, "Dark Green Doomsayers." The renowned climate expert put global warming in perspective for me, i.e., Earth is actually getting cooler.

So, rid yourself of those high-mileage cars and buy a Hummer or two. Seek opportunities to drive your car needlessly. Ensure that your food is produced at least 2,000 miles away, and bottled water should travel at least 3,000 miles. Keep your house shirt-sleeve warm in the winter and chilly in the summer. Better yet, open the windows. Never again buy any used item. Get rid of those energy-saving but funny-looking light bulbs. Write to your electricity supplier and demand that it power your refrigerator with energy from coal. Promote deforestation.

Ignore news stories such as "Scientists: Pace of Climate Change Exceeds Estimates," also in The Post on Feb. 15. God bless Mr. Will for unshackling me from carbon worry.

For previous Will-full hot air, see here.

Seasonal Update: Near-Average Spring 2009 Forecast for U.S.

Images (click to enlarge): Spring (March-April-May) 2009 temperature and precipitation forecasts, 90-day average temperatures and departures ending Feb. 17, from Climate Prediction Center.

The seasonal forecast for meteorological spring (March-April-May) 2009 was issued today by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center. Equal chances of above, near, or below average temperatures are expected across most of the country. The exceptions are the Southwest through the western Gulf Coast, where chances of warmer than average temperatures are up to 50%, and the Pacific Northwest, where cooler than average readings are forecast. States with primarily warm temperatures predicted are: Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma. Cool temperatures are predicted for the state of Washington, most of Oregon, and northern Idaho.

Precipitation is also expected to be near average over a large area, with drier conditions predicted from the Southwest through the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Meanwhile, with 10 days left in winter, temperatures for the last 90 days have been running warmer than average over most of the Southeast and nearly all of the western half of the U.S. Cooler than average temperatures have prevailed over New England, the Mid Atlantic, and the Midwest, as well as central and southern Florida and the extreme Pacific Northwest.

Gray Matter

In a post last night, CapitalistImperialistPig takes a stab at deconstructing Bill Gray's Jihad against Jim Hansen's Rossby Medal and global warming in general:

So is Gray just another sad example of the distinguished elderly scientist going off the rails and becoming a crank? I think so, but given his career and accomplishments, he deserves at least the respect of a refutation.

Feb. 19 Update
More Gray matters:

• October Fester
  
• Hazy, Lazy Daze of August
  
• Drought Busters
  
• DC AC
  
• Getting Better All the Time
  
• Lovely Rita, Meteorology Maid
  
• Not So Doggy Day
  
• Near Miss

Climate Outlook Worse Than Expected: AAAS 2009 Meeting

Feb. 16 update:
More coverage from:

• BBC, Global warming 'underestimated'
  
• AFP, Climate change: 'Feedback' triggers could amplify peril
  
• UK Guardian, The tropics on fire: scientist's grim vision of global warming
  

Meanwhile, the ad hominem hack attacks have already begun.

Original post:
Recent climate change reports have actually underestimated the problem, according to a briefing Saturday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Annual Meeting in Chicago. Christopher Field, a Stanford researcher, reported that greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2007 have been underestimated. Field also noted the effect of positive feedback loops:

There is a real risk that human-caused climate change will accelerate the release of carbon dioxide from forest and tundra ecosystems, which have been storing a lot of carbon for thousands of years.

From the press:

• WaPo (A3 in the carbon-based edition), Scientists: Pace of Climate Change Exceeds Estimates
  
• Reuters, Global warming seen worse than predicted
  
• UK Telegraph, AAAS: Global warming will be worse than expected, scientist warns

Rare Hawaiian Tornado Captured on Video

A rare tornado on the Hawaiian island of Oahu was captured on video Wednesday. The twister was strong enough to lift a golf cart weighing 800 to 1000 pounds, as well as an assistant golf pro weighing 250 pounds. Local National Weather Service meteorologists will be consulting with more experienced colleagues on the mainland to do a damage assessment. Initial analysis indicates the storm was an F0 on the Fujita scale, but it could possibly have reached F1. There have been only 37 previous tornadoes reported in Hawaii since records began in 1950; 10 have occurred in the current decade. The most recent F1 storm was on March 26, 1988.

January 2009 7th Warmest on Record

The preliminary analysis of January 2009 data released today by NCDC/NOAA shows that "the globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was the seventh warmest on record for January."

Other January highlights:

* January 2009 temperatures were above average in much of the land areas of the globe, with the exception of cooler-than-average temperatures across the northeastern and midwestern contiguous U.S., western Alaska, eastern Russia, western Europe, northwestern Africa, southeastern Asia, northeastern Australia, and northern Argentina.

* Precipitation during January 2009 was above average across Iceland, the British Isles, Alaska's panhandle, northeastern Australia, eastern and southern parts of Europe, northern South America, and southeastern Asia. Drier-than-average conditions were observed across eastern Asia, most of the continental U.S., eastern and southern parts of South America, and northern Europe.

* Cold phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (La Niña) conditions were present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during January 2009.

Images (click to enlarge): Historical January global temperature departures from average, January 2009 global temperature distribution, from National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

NOAA Nomination Hearing Held

The Senate Commerce Committee held a hearing today on the nomination of Jane Lubchenco to be NOAA Administrator.

Video is available here.

Questionable Authority provides a play-by-play commentary and analysis.

WaPo political blog says Obama Science Nominees Warmly Welcomed on Hill.

ScienceInsider finds the hearing uneventful.