National Treasure

Now

Sunny, mild. After lows in the low 40s, it's a bright, crisp spring day, perfect for filming the sequel to National Treasure here in the Nation's Capital. By mid afternoon, temperatures had reached the low 60s in much of the region with very low humidities (dewpoints in the teens or even single digits). Showers associated with a cold front are scattered from southwestern Virginia southeastward across the Carolinas. The fine weather is likely to persist through at least part of the weekend.

Photo: The national treasure cherry blossoms coming out near the Washington Monument, by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, chilly, then milder. With clear skies, light winds and low humidities, lows tonight will be crispy, in the mid to upper 30s in the city to the upper 20s in the coolest 'burblands. Tomorrow will be sunny and a little warmer, highs in the upper 60s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Hype Casting

Not such a treasure is AccuWeather's early hurricane season outlook on steroids, which gets taken apart by the HoChro's astute SciGuy in a post on Tuesday. (Pointer and interesting comments at University of Colorado's Prometheus science policy blog.)

What's so unfortunate about this kind of exaggeration is that it adds to public confusion and skepticism about the real capabilities of the science. It undermines confidence in all time scales of forecasting, from daily weather to seasonal and long-term climate trends (which are all very different types of problems, BTW, despite what you might hear on squawk radio, the cable noise networks, or the pollution-industry-financed blogs).

Marching Back to Spring

Now

Mostly sunny, warm. The passage of a cool front overnight has shifted winds to the northeast and increased the clouds, but temperatures this afternoon are again above seasonal averages, generally reaching the low 70s in the Washington metro area. This morning's low of 62°, if it were to hold through midnight (not likely), would exceed the record highest minimum for this date by 2°.

Scattered showers on radar are generally west of I-81 late this afternoon, but some of them may make it to the region, especially the southern portions. Cooler temperatures will follow for the next couple of days.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Chance of showers, turning cooler. After a slight chance of showers mainly to the south through this evening, clouds will decrease overnight with lows in the upper 40s downtown to the low 40s in 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 60s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Political Climate

The House Committee on Science and Technology followed up last week's hearing, "Perspectives on Climate Change", with a hearing this afternoon on "Shaping the Message, Distorting the Science: Media Strategies to Influence Public Policy". The hearing was intended to question "industry efforts and attempts within science agencies to control which federal scientists get access to the media and how media campaigns are mounted to confuse the public."

In conjunction with the hearing, the non-partisan, non-profit, Government Accountability Project has issued a report analyzing climate science politicization. The report focuses on NOAA, but it also includes NASA, EPA, USGS, and other agencies.

Irrational Exuberance

Now

Sunny, warm. Clockwise flow around a high pressure area centered off the southeast Atlantic coast is pushing temperatures to early-summer levels through the entire Mid Atlantic region this afternoon. Temperatures have reached the 80s in the Washington metro area, and in central Virginia, Petersburg was as high as 88°. (We'll spare them any further embarassment by not linking to their comments, but the heavy wishcasting about a week ago by certain site visitors regarding "wintry" weather for the 27th-30th based on a "D+10" (10-day) model forecast is looking a wee bit irrationally exuberant at this point.)

A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will bring somewhat more seasonable temperatures for the next couple of days, but the core of coldest air will remain well to the north of the region.

Temperature chart at 4pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clouds increasing, chance of showers, turning cooler. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers or possibly thunderstorms, low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs 65-69° and a 30% chance of showers, mainly to the south in the afternoon.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

It's a little over 60 days to tropical storm season, and the forecasts are already sprouting like the spring lawns. Despite the underperformance of last year's preseason hype, AccuWeather is exuberantly calling for major impacts on the Gulf Coast. The Klotzbach/Gray Colorado State forecast is scheduled to be updated next Tuesday.

It may be irrational to make a specific forecast 10 days in advance or even to project the particulars of the upcoming hurricane season, but it is possible to make a "hindcast" of hurricanes thousands of years in the past. The USAT Weather Guys linked last Friday to an interesting article, "Uncovering prehistoric hurricane activity", in the current (March-April) American Scientist about the clever use of sand distribution in sediment cores from coastal lakes to study the frequency of intense hurricanes over the last 5000 years. The full article is available only to members or subscribers, but there is more information about paleotempestology on the National Climatic Data Center web site.

Oscar-Winning Performance

Now

Sunny, warm. Reflecting the fickleness of the season, temperatures are as much as 30° warmer this afternoon than yesterday in the Washington metro area. Readings in the mid 70s in many locations are providing a nearly perfect spring weather performance. Some showers may arrive tonight along with a weak cold front approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clouds increasing, chance of showers, cooler. Clouds will increase this evening, and there is a 40% chance of showers overnight. Lows will be mainly in the low 50s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers likely and cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Political Science

Yesterday's latest performance of the Capitol Hill Climate Follies was reviewed with trademark snarkiness by the WaPo's inimitable Dana Milbank. The Academy Award for best quote goes to Republican Roscoe Bartlett from right here in Maryland:

"It's possible to be a conservative without appearing to be an idiot."

Note to the clueless: Yes, it is an "observational column about political theater", not a news story. That's why it has a title, "Washington Sketch". (And while we can only aspire to the snark level of the pros here in the nerve-enclosed glass center of PM Update, we also clearly separate the science from the opinion. See the subtitle up there? It says, "Political Science".)

Also providing reviews were the NYTi, SFChron, ChiTri, and Beeb, as well as the usual suspects, such as the AP (via BoGlo and others).

Photo: Inhofe gives Gore a finger after giving him the figurative Finger in Senate hearings yesterday, from the WaPo. Destroy the decor of any room with your own copy suitable for framing. (Offer void for Netscape users and where otherwise prohibited.)

Winter Springs Back Temporarily

Now

Mostly cloudy, chilly. Cloudy skies and an easterly to southeasterly breeze have brought a wintry chill back to the Washington metro area today with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 40s (about 12° below "normal") this afternoon. A warm front approaching from the southwest should bring much more springlike conditions tomorrow.

Temperature chart at 4pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clouds decreasing, warmer. Mostly overcast skies tonight will give way to increasing sunshine tomorrow. There is a less than 20% chance of a sprinkle or light shower tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low 40s and highs tomorrow will be 67-71°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Political Science

Former V.P. Gore testified to overflow crowds at a joint hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the Science and Technology Commitee this morning and a hearing of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee this afternoon. The hearing topics were "Perspectives on Climate Change" and "Perspective on Global Warming". The Senate hearings were carried live on C-SPAN3, so will probably be available for future rebroadcast. If you watch the video, be sure not to miss Sen. Inhofe's breathtakingly juvenile ad hominem whining at approximately 1 hour into the hearing.

The Sun Marches On

Now

Sunny, mild. Helped by a maximum sun elevation of 50°, temperatures rose into the 60s this afternoon in the Washington metro area, despite a northerly wind gusting over 20 mph at times. National was 63° by mid afternoon, and Dulles was 60°, while some upper 60s were reported in the southern fringe of the region. A glancing blow from a Canadian Arctic air mass will give a brief reminder of winter tomorrow before temperatures rebound to more springlike levels.

CapitalWeather.com chart based on Eq. 2.9 in Stull, Meteorology for Scientists and Engineers, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, cold. Under mainly clear skies, temperatures will drop tonight to the low and mid 30s in town and the mid 20s in 'burbalonia. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon and highs only 46-49°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Political Science

Today was Climate Crisis Action Day here in the Nation's Capital. The event to "call on Congress to pass the Arctic Wilderness Act and legislation to stop the threat of global warming" was sponsored by a number of environmental groups.

Yesterday's House Oversight and Government Reform Committee climate report hearings were covered in the CQ, LATi, NYTi, and even as far away as Australia and New Zealand, but here in Spin City, the WaPo apparently carried only the AP report online.

Back in the Groove Again

Now

Partly sunny, mild. After nearly ¾ of a month in which only 2 days have been within less than 5° above or below the daily average, today's weather in the Washington metro area is downright boring. Temperatures have reached the mid 50s under increasing clouds as a low pressure area in southern Canada moves eastward.

Although the Washington-Baltimore region has remained dry, precipitation has been not very far away, with a wintry mix indicated on radar at mid afternoon from near Harrisburg, PA northward to an area of snow through much of central PA and northern NJ. Some rain showers may make it into the metro area tonight as a cold front brings in drier skies tomorrow.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. There is a 50% chance of showers overnight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clouds will decrease tomorrow morning with breezy afternoon highs in the mid 50s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Political Science

The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee held over 4½ hours of hearings today, continuing its "examination of evidence and allegations of political interference with the work of government climate change scientists under the current Administration." Advance copies of testimony and other documents are available on the committee web site. The hearings were carried on C-SPAN radio, but they are not listed on the network's TV schedule.