Brief Cold Shot on the Way

Now

Sunny, seasonable. Southerly breezes gusting over 20 mph at times have lifted temperatures back to seasonable levels in the Washington metro area this afternoon under sunny skies. Highs were 51° at both National and Dulles as well as at BWI. A new cold shot arriving late tomorrow will be sharp but short in duration as milder air returns by the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, not as cold. Lows tonight under mostly clear skies will be in the mid 30s in town to near 30 in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s but turning windy and colder by late in the afternoon. There is a slight chance of isolated snow flurries.

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

As indicated here yesterday, Bill Proenza was announced today as the new Director of the National Hurricane Center. Proenza was appointed Director of the National Weather Service Southern Region in 1999. He was selected as a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society in 2003.

Photo of Bill Proenza from NOAA

A report today by the Government Accountability Office says that FEMA has misspent at least $1 billion of Hurricane Katrina aid on fraud and abuse. The amount includes $20 million paid to thousands of people who filed claims for the same damage from both Katrina and Rita.

Clearly Cold; Center Contenders Considered

Now

Sunny, cold. After early afternoon highs slightly over 40°, temperatures have dropped back to the 30s late this afternoon in the Washington metro area. Skies are mainly clear after some earlier clouds and a few very isolated snow flurries. Cold and dry conditions will continue through tomorrow.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, cold. Lows tonight will be similar to last night's under mainly clear skies, upper 20s downtown to low 20s in the 'burbs, some upper teens possible in the outlying areas. Skies will be mostly sunny tomorrow with more seasonable temperatures, highs near 49°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

NOAA will be announcing the replacement for outgoing National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield at the National Press Club tomorrow afternoon. The logical choice would be deputy director Ed Rappaport, but he is reported by the Miami Herald to have declined to apply. According to the same article, Bill Proenza, current director of the NWS Southern Region, is the leading contender. Other candidates, however, are Steve Letro, meteorologist in charge of the Jacksonville office, Bill Reed, in charge of the Houston office, and Richard Knabb, a forecaster at the Hurricane Center.

Miami's WPLG, Channel 10, among the child run over by grandma, shots fired near middle school, and $35K worth of iPods missing from Best Buy stories, is more definite about the choice. Bob King's Eye on the Storm blog in the Palm Beach Post, on the other hand, is unsure. Retiring director Mayfield was recently profiled in the Tampa Tribune.

Max Mayfield photo from Tampa Tribune.

DC: December Chill, Displaying Calendars

Now

Windy, cold. A low pressure area which developed off Cape Hatteras last evening brought some light to moderate rain to the Northern Neck, Southern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore before scooting away to the Nova Scotia coast early this afternoon. As it strengthened rapidly, the counter-clockwise flow brought a reinforcement of cold and dry air to the Washington metro area on winds gusting over 30 mph at times.

Afternoon highs have been the coldest of the season, generally in the upper 30s; the daily highs at Dulles (39°) and National (41°) were both between 4:00 and 5:00 this morning. The dewpoints are mainly in the low teens and there are even some single digits around the region.

Surface weather map at 1pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, cold. As winds diminish tonight under mainly clear skies, temperatures will drop to the mid 20s in the city and the upper teens in the coldest 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny with highs near 40°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Weather Pinups

It's calendar time again. It may not be as sexy as Weather Babes Gone Wild (Mrs. Update wouldn't let us put that one up anyway), but the perennial favorite here at PM Update Command Center is the Weather Guide with Phenomenal Weather Events. This is the 20th anniversary of the calendar which was at one time co-branded with The Weather Channel. Thanks to the merger of the publisher Accord Publishing into the conglomerate Andrews McMeel Universal, the calendar is now available through Amazon and other retail outlets. The discounted Amazon price is cheaper than ordering direct from the publisher, and orders of 3 or more qualify for free shipping.

A little more exotic and also available from Amazon is the 19th edition of the Canadian Weather Trivia Calendar. This one is so hot that a used copy of the 2003 edition is listed for $192.42!

Record Balminess Yielding to More December-Like Conditions

Windy, warm.
The Wind Advisory was cancelled as of 5:48. Record-breaking warmth will turn to more seasonable conditions tonight on the heels of some strong winds. (75° at National smashed the old record by 4° and Dulles also set a record at 75°. Records were set at Martinsburg and Baltimore as well.)

Despite some ominous-looking clouds earlier, the focus of severe storm activity remained mostly north of the Mason-Dixon line this afternoon, although very strong southerly winds ahead of a sharp cold front did produce some scattered power outages and road closures in the area. National gusted to 48 mph and Dulles to 53 mph; a gust of 71 mph was reported at Wintergreen VA.


Temperature chart at 4pm today from Unisys shows cold air getting ready to spill over the mountains into the Mid Atlantic area.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Windy, colder. Temperatures will turn sharply colder tonight under clearing skies and strong winds. Lows will be generally near 40° with some mid and upper 30s in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny and brisk, breezy and much less humid with highs in the low 50s.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, scroll down to Camden's post below.

Extremes and Supremes

Now

Mostly cloudy, warm. A mid to upper level cloud deck and a sun intensity roughly equivalent to Jan. 15 might indicate otherwise, but strong southerly breezes pushed the November closing day temperatures very close to where they started the month in the Washington metro area. Highs were 70° at both National and Dulles; BWI was 71°. Dewpoints were nearly muggy in the spring-like mid and upper 50s.

Radar showed some widely scattered light showers during the afternoon. These were mainly in the mountains, although the PM Update Mobile Unit observed some sprinkles in the Shady Grove area of Rockville/Gaithersburg.

Temperature chart at 3pm today from Unisys shows teens in Oklahoma and 60s along the New England/Canada border.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Showers, continued mild. Mild temperatures will continue through tonight with increasing clouds and a 50% chance of showers by morning; lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers likely and highs in the upper 60s, turning much colder at night. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the afternoon through the evening, and there is a slight chance of thunderstorms.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Extremes

Last evening, Seattle broke the all-time monthly precipitation record of 15.33" in 115 years of record. Olympia WA was also threatening its monthly record of 19.84", although so far today the record appears intact.

Supremes

Regarding the EPA CO₂ regulation case heard by the Supreme Court yesterday: The RealClimate blog has links to an editorial in the Tuesday NYT and, for the lawyer types, the actual briefs, pro and con, from the case. The Prometheus science policy blog at the University of Colorado also has a discussion of the friend of the court brief filed by a group of climate scientists. Today's WaPo has an article about yesterday's court arguments (page A3 in the carbon-based edition). Last night's PBS NewsHour had discussions with Marcia Coyle of the National Law Journal and between Vicki Patton and David Rivkin, lawyers on each side of the case.

Mild November Keeps Us Hangin' On

Now

Mostly cloudy, mild. Despite morning fog heavy in places and some thicker mid-level clouds associated with a "back-door" front lurking just to the northeast, temperatures in the Washington metro area have again reached the 60s this afternoon; highs were 62° at National and at Dulles. November will finish out on a mild note before colder air reaches the Mid Atlantic region late on Friday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, continued mild. With cloudy skies and dewpoints in the 50s, low temperatures tonight will have a hard time reaching the 40s anywhere in the area, and fog is again likely by morning. Models are predicting temperatures as high as 72° tomorrow, but persistent clouds are likely to keep the maximum to around 65° with the slight possibility of some widely scattered showers, especially to the west.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Capitol Climate: Humming Along with The Supremes

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments today in the case Massachusetts v. EPA. The case involves an attempt by Massachusetts, California, 10 other states, and some environmental groups to force the EPA to do its job by enforcing limits on CO₂ emissions. According to legal correspondent Nina Totenberg on NPR's Morning Edition today:

The law mandates that the EPA shall regulate any pollutant from motor vehicles or power plants that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. That includes pollutants that affect weather and climate.

Despite year 2000 campaign promises to the contrary, the current Administration has refused to allow EPA to regulate CO₂, claiming it is not a pollutant and that the science is insufficient to determine its effects. Much of the argument in the case has centered on the technical issue of whether the states have the legal standing to bring the suit in the first place.

You can read more coverage of the case in the BoGlo, NYT, USA Today, San Jose Mercury News, and Financial Times (via MSNBC). The carbon-based WaPo had no coverage today, although the silicon-based format has reprints of the Reuters and AP stories. The WaPo also editorialized on the subject on Sunday. The SF Chron had an editorial today.

Mediarology: Seasonal Outlook

Bob Ryan has issued his winter outlook, calling for a variable pattern with average temperatures and above average snowfall (no numbers given).

November Contrasts

Now

Seasonably mild. Our month of November contrasts continues as somewhat thinner clouds today have allowed temperatures to rise into the low 60s in the Washington metro area. Highs were 61° at National and 65° at Dulles. Meanwhile, across the country, cold air continues to penetrate the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, continued mild. Under increasing clouds later tonight, lows should range from the upper 40s downtown to the low 40s in the 'burbs.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some sun and highs in the mid 60s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and the weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Snow in Washington!

As viewers of Monday Night Football already know, you could have seen snow in Washington yesterday, but you'd have needed to cross the continent to do it. On top of the already record-breaking November rainfall, the Seattle metro area received a relatively rare several inches of snow yesterday. As of this morning, only 0.09" of additional precipitation was needed to break the all-time Seattle monthly record of 15.33" which was set in 1933. Only a trace of snow fell earlier today, and skies were mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid 20s early this afternoon. The forecast indicates that another storm moving in from the Gulf of Alaska will bring more precipitation tomorrow night and into Thursday.

Photo of Seattle-Green Bay football game last night from USA Today.

Political Science

The National Science Teachers Association today issued a press release in response to the Sunday WaPo Outlook section article by Laurie David about the distribution of "An Inconvenient Truth" DVDs cited in yesterday's PM Update.