Tammy Tell Me True

All eyes are on minimal Tropical Storm Tammy today for the chance to bring us some drought-breaking rain. But first, let's clear up the October Urban Legend. It may be because perfect warm, dry days like today are so memorable that it seems as if October is usually a dry month. In fact, October is a transition month between the normally wetter summer and the normally drier winter. The record shows that October has only the 7th driest long-term average rainfall of all the months of the year in Washington DC weather history. That's right, at 3.22", October is (just barely) wetter than January's 3.21". The driest month is February, with 2.63". Of course, February also has only 28.25 days on average, but even accounting for that, October is nearly 12% wetter than February. The months which have less total precipitation than October are: January, February, April, June, November, December.

Currently, temperatures are near or even a little above 80 in the metro area under sunny skies.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight should see lows in the low 60s with increasing cloudiness toward morning. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 70s.

Tropical Beat

Tropical Storm Tammy developed just off the Florida coast this morning. This is only the 4th time there has been a 19th "named" storm in a single year, and it is the earliest one by almost 3 weeks. The others formed on 12/07/1887, 10/25/33, and 10/27/95 ("Tanya").

At 2pm, Tammy was centered only 20 miles northeast of Daytona Beach, moving north-northwest at 14 mph. By the 5pm advisory, it was 15 miles north-northeast of St. Augustine. Maximum winds had increased slightly to 50 mph, but tropical storm winds extended as much as 260 miles from the center. The strongest winds and heaviest rains were mainly to the north and east.

On the forecast track, the storm should be a depression in central Georgia by tomorrow evening. That's when things start to get interesting for us. There is a lot of moisture associated with this storm, and indications are that it will be moving northeastward as the high pressure ridge now over us moves slowly eastward off the coast. The global forecast model ("GFS") from this morning's data has some light rain reaching the area as early as tomorrow afternoon, but the heavier amounts don't arrive until Friday morning. The latest model ("NAM") output from this afternoon's data delays the arrival of precpitation until midday Friday and keeps the heaviest amounts in eastern North Carolina and central Virginia. The official NWS precipitation forecast ("QPF") made early this afternoon has 2" to 3+" of rain in the local region for the 24 hours from tomorrow evening through Friday evening.

At this point, I don't have a lot of confidence in either the exact timing or the amount of rain, but this is the best chance we've had in at least about 6 weeks to get some serious precipitation in the Washington area. Stay tuned tonight and tomorrow for updates as the situation develops.

Falling Back to Summer

Yesterday's official high of 82 was consistent with the long-term average for the early days of September, and temperatures this afternoon are approaching similar readings in the Washington metro area. Fortunately, dewpoints in the mid 50s are keeping comfort levels more in line with fall than summer.

Tonight and Tomorrow

After lows tonight in the low 60s, some clouds tomorrow should keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than today.

Tropical Beat

As Jason predicted below, Stan has been revived by the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and is now a tropical storm again with maximum winds of 55 mph. An Air Force reconnaissance flight was on the way to investigate early this afternoon. Some strengthening is expected, and Stan could make landfall on the Mexican Gulf Coast as a hurricane.

The area of more interest for the U.S. is a low-pressure trough which extends through the central Bahamas. This has the potential to develop as it moves westward, and a NOAA flight is scheduled for tomorrow.

Bizarro Weather World

The WaPo, which has rarely shown much of an inclination to take science seriously, wastes an entire half-page of valuable A-section real estate today on the latest crackpot scheme for "controlling" hurricanes. This kind of idea, which normally hangs out in the sub-basement along with the perpetual motion machines, cold fusion, and the recipes for transmuting lead into gold, gets trotted out every few years, usually when a major weather disaster has captured the public's attention. This particular plan involves firing off large numbers of jet engines on barges in the path of the storm. The promoter is asking for a mere $10 million to perform an experiment.

Here's an idea: Walk over to Staples, buy a No. 2 pencil for about a dime, and do some arithmetic on the back of the envelope from your latest credit card offer. Prof. Kerry Emanuel, a meteorology professor at MIT who has actually done research on the energy budget of tropical storms, is way too polite when he says, "I hate to sound pessimistic, but Moshe's strategy requires many orders of magnitude of energy more than what he's talking about, and the backfires would have to be almost as strong as the hurricane itself." Unfortunately, even this relatively mild rebuke is buried near the bottom of the second column (second page of web version).

Note to WaPo "science" reporters: It's time to learn your Powers of 10. And while you're at it, why don't you cover something we actually can control, like, oh, I don't know, maybe CO2 emission?

Afternoon Update is taking a break tomorrow, but will resume on Wednesday.

Deja Vu

5:00 update: We have Tropical Depression 19. The area near the Cape Verdes has developed and has the potential to become Stan within 24 hours.

4:30 update
How cold was it? The Official Low last night was 50 (10.0 C). (Hm, I wonder why those numbers sound familiar. Check out the CarTalk Puzzler reference in Monday's post.) The Usually Colder Place was 40 (4.4 C). In case there was any suspense, the 24-hr. precipitation did come in at 0.01", so the record for driest September ever in Washington will be official at midnight. This afternoon, temperatures have rebounded; they are at or very near 70 in all reporting locations. If you want to see rain on a radar, you'll have to go at least as far as the southern Georgia/South Carolina coast.

Tonight and Tomorrow

For tonight, clear skies and calm winds will lead to some more chilly temperatures, but a few notches higher than last night: 53 city to 43 exurbs. Tomorrow: deja vu all over again. (And somebody said in the comments that summer was the boring season!)

Tropical Beat

The tropics continue their siesta. The Special Tropical Disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean was looking better organized today, but not enough to send in the planes. A flight is scheduled tentatively for late tonight or tomorrow.

A low pressure area almost 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is also perking up and conditions are favorable for tropical depression development "later today or on Saturday", according to the NHC.

Policy Matters

Wonkette has some comments on Michael Crichton's "Jurassic Perk" (or should the initial consonants have been reversed?)

Capitol Climate: CO2

Congress is back in town (hold on to your wallet!), so the American Meteorological Society's Environmental Science Seminar Series resumes on Capitol Hill next Wednesday.

• Subject: "Changes in Ocean Acidity Resulting from the Buildup of CO2: Implications for the Present and the Future"
  
• Time: Wednesday, October 5, 2005, noon - 2pm
  
• Location: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room G-50
  
• Moderator: Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Policy Fellow, American Meteorological Society
  
• Speaker: Dr. Richard A. Feely, Supervisory Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
  
• Speaker: Dr. Kenneth Caldeira, Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford University, CA

The questions to be addressed are:

What are the links between ocean acidity, ocean temperature and elevated atmospheric CO2? What are the implications of increasing ocean acidity in the upper ocean to ecosystems and to society? Is there historical evidence of increased ocean acidity associated with warmer temperatures and higher levels of oceanic and atmospheric CO2? If so, what were the consequences? Are there options for keeping ocean acidity in check? Is the increase in ocean acidity independent of any climate warming resulting from the buildup of CO2?

The next seminar is tentatively scheduled for October 25 on the subject, "Hurricanes: Are They Changing and Are We Adequately Prepared for the Future?"

Record Breaking

The cold front we talked about yesterday raced through the Washington metro area around noon, bringing some very light showers (National and BWI 0.01", Dulles a trace). Unless something as unusual as an ice meteorite landing directly on the rain gauge happens before midnight tomorrow, the official total of 0.11" will become the new low rainfall amount for September in Washington. (The April record is 0.03", and October has had both a trace and 0.02".) The bright sun after the rapid clearing has pushed the temperature back up to 75 at mid afternoon.

Tonight and Tomorrow

The main issue for the next 24 hours is how many blankets you will need tonight. The model temperature forecasts were not all up to date at press time, but the current ones ranged from 49 to 50 for National, so I will go for 49. (The record of 39 has stood since 1888.) Dulles and the other usual colder suspects could easily be 10 degrees colder. (Dulles has been reporting only for about 45 years, but the record there was 35 in 1993.) Tomorrow's high should be around 70.

Tropical Beat: Not Yet Depressed

After a reconnaissance flight checked out the disturbance in the western Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center put out a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement saying that the area was still disorganized and not yet a tropical depression. Conditions are still favorable, however, and another flight is at least tentatively scheduled for tomorrow.

Policy Matters: Science or Entertainment?

While the Katrina hearings continued on Capitol Hill yesterday, the Senate Environment and Public Works committee was holding a hearing in which, probably for the first time, a science fiction writer was invited to testify on science policy. Michael Crichton, author of "State of Fear", and an M.D. by training, was asked for his opinion on global warming. For a review of the hearing by actual scientists (now there's a novel idea), look at the latest posting on the RealClimate blog. RealClimate has a link to the remarks by the ranking committee member, Sen. Jeffords of Vermont, in which he asks, "Mr. Chairman, given the profound human suffering and ecological damage along the Gulf Coast, why are we having a hearing that features a fiction writer as our key witness?" The hearings were also covered by the book sections of the U.K. Guardian ("Novel take on global warming") and the New York Times ("Michael Crichton, Novelist, Becomes Senate Witness")

One Fine Day II: Records in Jeopardy

A bright September sun and southerly breezes are helping temperatures rebound nicely to near 80 from this morning's chilly lows (55 at National, 47 at Dulles). For an explanation of why I was too conservative by 5 degrees at National and 3 degrees at Dulles, and to see who did better, check out the comments from yesterday's post.

What would normally be a typical early-fall cold front has history-making potential tomorrow, since we are approaching the end of September with official total rainfall of 0.10", vs. the all-time low of 0.14" in 1884. (Memo to Topper: I went scurrying back to the database when you said 1934 on the 11pm report last night, but that was the year of the WETTEST September, 17.45". Since we don't make the big bucks here at Blog Central, we do our own fact-checking.)

Tonight and Tomorrow

I'm not going out on much of a limb by saying that tonight's lows will NOT be as cool as last night's, mainly in the low 60s. Tomorrow is trickier, since it depends on the timing of the passage of a new cold front, one that is strong enough to produce some frost in the upper Great Lakes in the early morning hours. The model guidance indicates frontal passage ("fropa") in the early to mid afternoon, so depending on the amount of cloudiness and whether or not there is some rain associated, the high might not make it beyond the mid 70s. The latest model run this afternoon keeps the heaviest precipitation north of the Mason-Dixon line (over half an inch in western Pennsylvania), but around 0.1" is indicated for the DC area. This amount is not enough to save any lawns, but it would spoil the chance of breaking the 121-year record.

Tropical Beat: Atlantic Still Quiet

Tropical junkies are having withdrawal pains from another day without an advisory. The "special feature", a tropical wave/low pressure area now in the western Caribbean is looking more ragged today, and the scheduled reconnaissance flight was canceled. The National Hurricane Center still sees some potential for this to become Tropically Depressed, so the flight was rescheduled for tomorrow morning. There are now only 2 days left to break the 1933 record for earliest 18th storm.

Broadcast News: Entertainment or Business, You Be the Judge

You may recall about a month ago (on Katrina's birthday, as it happens), we linked to a Harper's Magazine online article which quoted from the transcript of a presentation by a Weather Channel executive on dress and appearance of On-Camera Meteorologists (OCMs). This issue is the subject of an age-discrimination lawsuit by former TWC meteorologist Marny Stanier. ABC News has posted an Associated Press article which describes the latest developments in the case. On Monday, the judge raised the question of whether TWC is entertainment or a business. If it's entertainment, then he said they would be able to discriminate in the same way a movie studio, for example, can hire only 19-year-old actresses. TWC's lawyer claimed that firing Stanier was "simply a way to free up money for future investment." From a view of the faces who have been hired in the last few years, it seems that the future investment has been in younger talent.

"One Fine Day"

Behind a cold front which passed through the Washington DC metro area last night, high pressure dominates the entire country east of the Rockies, except for the Gulf Coast and Florida. Bright, sunny skies have pushed temperatures near or a little above 80 by mid afternoon. Humidity is comfortable with dewpoints mainly in the mid 40s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 downtown, in the 50s in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny and dry with high temperatures in the upper 70s.

Tropical Beat: Go S!

Once again, no tropical advisories are being issued today. However, there is an area of low pressure in the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Haiti, which shows "the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next 36 hours", according to the National Hurricane Center. Air Force reconnaissance is scheduled for tomorrow.

We're a little partial to the letter "S" here at Afternoon Blog Central, so we should be excused if we're rooting for this one to develop. If it becomes "Stan", it will be the first time in history that an 18th "named" Atlantic storm has formed before October. The 18th storm in 1933 occurred on October 1, and the only storm ever to have an actual "S" name was Sebastien in 1995.

The Palm Beach Post has an extensive Storm 2005 multimedia collection (flash/audio/video), including recaps of Rita, Katrina, and friends, as well as the Greatest Hits of 2004. Many of the features need more bandwidth than Verizon provides with its tin-can-and-string service here within shouting distance of I-270, the Technology Highway, but they look interesting.

For some spectacular super high-res (250 m) images of Rita, as well as some other items from the last 4 years, point your high-bandwidth connection to the MODIS Image Gallery at the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center.

Hurricane Preparedness

The American Meteorological Society and the Weather Channel sponsored a workshop over 5 years ago to discuss the U.S. hurricane preparedness system. One of the principal findings was that

Overall, the nation pays insufficient attention to hurricane preparedness and response. In particular, there is a lack of attention, dialogue, and planning among the affected parties and insufficient investments to develop and implement response strategies.

Well, Probably Not

Hopes of reducing the drought in the Washington metro area have faded today as the remnants of Rita moved up the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front and stayed mainly north and west of the region. A few places, such as Hagerstown, Frederick, and Leesburg, reported some light rain or drizzle this afternoon, but no measurable accumulation. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies while a southerly to southwesterly breeze gusted as high as 25 mph.

There will be some widely scattered showers moving through the area into this evening, but amounts will be light. Lows will be in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be sunny and dry, highs in the upper 70s.

Tropical Beat

This is one of the few times during this hectic hurricane season that there has been no organized tropical activity in the Atlantic. The last advisory on the remnants of Rita was issued at 5am this morning. Although the storm fortunately did not stall out, some rainfall amounts were very high. A place called Bunkie in Louisiana reported 16 inches. Also in double digits were Laplace, LA at 12.45" and Center, TX at 10.48". New Orleans had over 6".

The NHC is watching a "strong tropical wave" over the central Caribbean for possible future development. There is also a low pressure area about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Historical Perspective/Numerology

Now that Rita has made landfall as a Category 3, this is the first time in 155 years of history that as many as 3 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. at Category 3 or higher in each of 2 consecutive years. Last year, there were Charley (4), Ivan (3), and Jeanne (3). This year, we have had Dennis (3), Katrina (4), and Rita (3). The only other previous years with 2 3s and a 4 were 1954 (Carol, Edna, and Hazel) and 1893. There has never been a year with 4 major U.S. landfalls. Even the record-setting year of '33 had, appropriately, 3 3s.

Federal Kudos

The National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center get some well-deserved praise for their hurricane forecasting in today's WaPo Federal Diary. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California is quoted saying that they produced

"probably . . . the best performance of any of the federal agencies in all of this."

Broadcast News

Fans of NPR's Car Talk were pleased Saturday to hear that their weekly Puzzler featured a Fahrenheit/Celsius question. I'm not going to provide a link, because I already solved it in my head while putting a pizza in the oven. (If you do look it up and enter, please mention CapitalWeather.com.)

I think I heard Pann and Berk, the WeatherTalk guys, say they were going to be on MPT's Direct Connection tonight, but the station's web site is showing a cooking topic. In any case, the program is on at 7:30, channel 22 locally.