tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post675262794377240101..comments2023-06-19T08:58:01.084-04:00Comments on CapitalClimate: "It Hasn't Warmed Since 1998"Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-29621044356440880152009-10-10T03:50:51.625-04:002009-10-10T03:50:51.625-04:00It's a good experiment. Extend it a little.
D...It's a good experiment. Extend it a little.<br /><br />Define a sequence T(i) by setting T(0)=0 and T(i+1)=0.99*T(i)+Random. (Your random numbers should have a zero-centred Normal distribution. You can do that in Excel with NORMSINV(RAND()).) Extend it for a few thousand points, and plot it.<br /><br />Over short periods, you get apparent trends up and trends down, but these are all spurious - there is no trend, as can be seen if the series is extended far enough. It's an experiment everyone should do.<br /><br />How could you tell, just looking at the data, whether <i>any</i> apparent trend was genuine, or the result of this sort of randomness?Stevonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-26238420997636151312009-04-06T19:48:00.000-04:002009-04-06T19:48:00.000-04:00Nicely done.Nicely done.chrisdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10494573891618930891noreply@blogger.com